Week 13

After yesterday, one more college football Saturday and we are on to conference championships. Where the hell has this season gone?

I hate myself for feeding the “Playoff or Bust” hype, but with a 12-team field, let’s be honest, it’s kind of playoff or bust for any serious football team these days. And so, we start with some numbers:

92%+ probability of making the CFP: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ole Miss. There’s 7 of your 12.

And after avenging the ghost of the GameDay curse (anyone else remember Indiana in Eugene?) with a never-in-doubt drubbing of a peaking Trojans team, the Oregon Ducks (less their two best receivers nonetheless!) jumped to 84% playoff probability.

That leaves four spots. 

Oklahoma sits above the rest at 73%. Alabama, BYU, SMU, and North Texas all hover around a coin flip (58%, 52%, 48%, and 48% respectively). Vandy, UVA, JMU, and Tulane are on life support around 25%, and another 10 or so are mathematically possible, but about as likely as our commissioner is to win OTC at this point.

Remember the 0-2 Notre Dame chatter by the way? They lost to Miami(FL) by a FG before falling to Texas A&M by one. Since then? Nine straight wins, all without any real threat. And yesterday? A 70-7 throttling of Syracuse in a message to both the CFP committee and any remaining doubters. The Irish are ready for December.

After breaking my heart, BYU continued its path to getting back on track, earning a solid W on the road against a 7-4 Cincinnati Bearcats squad. With a win against 5-6 UCF next weekend, the Cougars will be heading to the Big 12 Championship and a chance to lock a playoff spot. I’m keeping my expectations tempered.

SMU delivered a statement 38-6 win over Louisville, keeping the ACC an absolute cluster. I honestly don’t even know the ACC scenarios at this point, and I’m too lazy to look them up, but somehow UVA, Pitt, SMU, GA Tech, Miami (FL), and Duke all have a chance to find their way into the dance. Barf. 

Rapid fire: Kennesaw State outlasted Missouri State and their late fake FG debacle. FIU fought back in the 4th to take down Jacksonville State, KingBrutus and no nonsence the only ones to make that call. UTSA became bowl eligible after dropping 58 on the Pirates of East Carolina. South Alabama dominated more so than the score would suggest against Southern Miss. TCU played spoiler in Houston, logging a top 25 win. Well done MasterGrimes for being the sole rider with TCU. And Tennessee made Florida look all the moredesperate for Lane Kiffin after winning for the first time in the Swamp in over 20 years.

What’s in store next week? Absolute rivalry gold. #1 Ohio State v. #15 Michigan (coming off a big win over the mighty Terps), #4 Georgia v. #23 GA Tech, and #3 Texas A&M v. #16 Texas perhaps the most notable of the bunch.

In OTC, with two weeks to go, the top three have created some distance. Dallas2697 leads the way at 476. Just four behind, a tie for second between RecordSetter98 and PSU1996. This is the tightest I can remember it at this point of the season in a while.

Hat tip to MasterGrimes for the high score of Week 13 with 41. And let us not forget Tbailet7 fighting for the coveted “most wins” payout. Though he sits 6th overall, he is tied with our leader for most correct picks at 80 on the nose. Lots to play out in these next two weeks… Think you’re slick? Make those picks!

 

 

 

                    VEGAS

Louisville @ SMU (-3.5)

Missouri State @ Kennesaw State (-6.5)

#15 USC @ #7 Oregon (-10.5)

Jacksonville State @ Florida International (-2.5)

East Carolina (-1.5) @ UTSA

Southern Miss (-2.5) @ South Alabama

TCU (-1.5) @ #23 Houston

Pittsburgh @ #16 GA Tech (-2.5)

#20 Tennessee (-3.5) @ Florida

#11 BYU (-2.5) @ Cincinnati